Notes from underground

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Archive for the tag “statistics”

Let my dataset change your mindset

At a gathering in September 2000 the United Nations set some Millennium Development Goals for poverty reduction to be achieved by 2015.

What progress has been made towards achieving them?

More than most people seem to think, according to Pieter Smith, who spoke at TGIF this morning.

He began by asking three questions:

  1. What is the proportion of children in the world who have been vaccinated against measles?
  2. How many children are there in the world today, and will there be more by the end of the century?
  3. What is the proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty?

Most underestimated the number of children vaccinated, and over estimated the number of children and the proportion living in extreme poverty.

He said that 80% of the world’s children had been vaccinated against measles (most estimated that it was about 50%), and that the number of children in the world was not expected to increase between now and the end of the century.

The number of children being vaccinated and the proportion of girls being educated were not merely indicators of general prosperity and increased life expectancy, but were actually causes. It was not that prosperity caused more girls to be educated and thus to have their children vaccinated, but it was the other way round.

Most people have a mental picture of a “developed world” and a “developing world” which is a couple of generations out of date.

He said that there was a website where you could download an app to see these statistics that show this. Unfortunately the website is not accessible, and produces this message:

Error 1014 Ray ID: 38561baaa3ba564b • 2017-07-28 07:26:03 UTC
CNAME Cross-User Banned
What happened?

You’ve requested a page on a website that is part of the Cloudflare network. The host is configured as a CNAME across accounts on Cloudflare, which is prohibited by security policy.

When I’ve found out how to access the site I’ll post a link here.


Spreadsheet for World Cup fans

My wife Val is a football fanatic, and also has the calculating mind in our family, and has designed a spreadsheet to keep track of the World Cup results.

If anyone is a soccer stats freak, you might like to try it. A tiny corner of it is shown below, but there is much more than that.

You enter the results of each match as it is played, and it will predict who will play who in the next found. It also keeps track of yellow and red cards, and things like that.

Don’t try it unless you are really interested if both football and stats, though. It’s 5 Mb, and there’s nothing in it that you won’t be able to find on the web or in the paper the next day

South Africa Pts Mexico Pts Uruguay Pts France Pts
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

If you would like to try it, e-mail and ask for a copy. It is in MS Excell, but it also seems to work in the Open Office spreadsheet program.

Val also notes:

In 1966 when England were the home team and won the world cup their first round group consisted of


is this a sign!

Which star signs have the best and the worst drivers?

One of the things I’ve often wondered, with all the statistical information that is collected nowadays, is whether anyone had tried correlating it with astrology. Now, at last, it seems as though someone has.

Which star signs have the best and the worst drivers? | Car Insurance:

This study, released in 2002, was carried out as part of Suncorp’s annual review of claims. “We always look for trends in claims to see if there are ways to reduce our pricing, but there is no intention to introduce astrology as a rating factor for motor insurance,” explained Warren Duke, Suncorp’s national manager of personal insurance.

It is always hard to disagree with the facts – and this is what they found:

Worst driver by star sign

1. Gemini May 21-June 21
2. Taurus April 20-May 20
3. Pisces February 19-March 20
4. Virgo August 23-September 22
5. Cancer June 22-July 22
6. Aquarius January 20-February 18
7. Aries March 21-April 19
8. Leo July 23-August 22
9. Libra, September 23-October 22
10. Sagittarius November 22-December 21
11. Scorpio October 23-November 21
12. And the safest driver is Capricorn December 22-January 19

It would be interesting to see if that fits with South Africa too. And then if a similar study was done in the northern hemisphere as well.

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